Showing posts with label Gold News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold News. Show all posts

Why gold, silver prices seeing pressure amid global equities meltdown

Why gold, silver prices seeing pressure amid global equities meltdown

Gold and silver prices are posting solid losses in early U.S. futures trading Friday. The safe-haven metals bulls are confounded their markets cannot catch a bid amid the very keen risk aversion in the marketplace that sees world stock and financial markets in turmoil. There is an old saying in trading markets that when times get really dire and anxiety is high, you don't sell what you want, you sell what you can. Such is likely part of the reason safe-haven gold has seen downside price pressure this week. Also, remember that gold's price is mostly driven by consumer demand. China is a leading gold consumer, and the coronavirus outbreak's negative impact on the Chinese economy is most certainly going to crimp Chinese citizens' purchases of gold and silver. Silver this week is getting hit especially hard on ideas both commercial and consumer demand for the metal will be dented by slowing world economic growth. Still, the gold bulls remain in firm near-term technical control amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart and prices are still not that far below Monday’s seven-year high. April gold futures were last down $19.00 an ounce at $1,623.40. March Comex silver prices hit a nine-week low overnight and were last down $0.623 at $17.035 an ounce.

Global stock markets were solidly lower again Friday, the last trading day of the month, as the coronavirus outbreak continues to grip the global marketplace and is causing keen trader and investor anxiety. Here are just a few of the economic ramifications of the coronavirus outbreak, according to reports: China ports are seeing container ship calls down 30% from last year. Oil shipments to China from the Middle East are down 88% from last year’s February deliveries. The International Energy Agency forecasts oil demand to fall by 435,000 barrels a day in the first quarter--the first contraction in 10 years. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward sharply lower openings and at multi-month lows when the New York day session begins.

Do not be surprised if, as soon as today, the major central banks of the world issue a joint statement declaring they stand ready to stimulate economies by easing their monetary policies, if the coronavirus scare continues to roil the markets. How the marketplace would interpret such a declaration is unclear. It could make market participants even more panicky.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note has dropped to a record low of 1.17%. The 10-year German bond (bund) yield hit a five-month low of -0.616%. What the U.S. Treasury market is telling traders and investors this week is that serious economic damage will be inflicted by the coronavirus—both at home and abroad, including the possibility of a U.S. recession on the horizon. Europe’s economy stands to be hurt even worse by the outbreak.

Even in a sea of red, gold is a life preserver – Aberdeen Standard Investments

Even in a sea of red, gold is a life preserver – Aberdeen Standard Investments

It's a sea of red in financial markets and gold has not been immune to the selling pressure as fear continues to build among investors; however, one market strategist says that now is not the time to give up on the precious metal.

Despite the significant risk-off sentiment, gold prices are looking to the week with a loss, currently down nearly 4% from last Friday; however, Steven Dunn, head of ETFs at Aberdeen Standard Investments, said that the metal is still doing what it is supposed to.

The comments come as gold prices give up most of their gains from earlier in the week. April gold futures last traded at $1,587.50 an ounce.

Despite the selling pressure, Dunn said the precious metal is still acting as an insurance hedge as U.S. equity markets see their worst weekly selloff since the 2008 financial crisis. By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down roughly 14% on the week, dropping more than 4,000 points.

"You have to remember that gold doesn't wear a cape," Dunn said in a telephone interview with Kitco News. "It's not going to be immune to selling pressure, especially if there is a liquidity squeeze in the marketplace."

Dunn said that from conversations he's had with market participants, gold is getting hit on two fronts. First, the sharp selloff in equity market has created some margin calls and investors are selling liquid, profitable trades like gold to meet their funding requirements. The second factor is a strong U.S. dollar as investors shift into cash to wait out the latest financial maelstrom.

Although gold is suffering, Dunn said that investors should continue to look to gold as an essential insurance policy as the full economic impact of the spreading coronavirus is still unknown.

"With everything that we are seeing in the news about the virus, I think that there are going to be more challenging days ahead," he said. "I wouldn't want to push gold aside at this moment."

Dunn said that the question investors are currently asking is: how are governments and central banks going to respond to weak global growth as a result of the virus. The Federal Reserve has been reluctant to signal another rate cut, but markets see a 50% chance further easing next month. Markets see the possibility of interest rates falling to zero by the end of the year.

Coupled with looser monetary policy, Dunn said that he sees more fiscal stimulus from governments around the world.

"Low interest rates and growing deficits are going to be good for gold," he said. "I do think a response to this virus is going to require intervention by government and central banks," he said.

Even as gold prices struggle to hold on to $1,600 an ounce, Dunn said that he is holding steady with his forecast for prices to push to $1,700 an ounce in 2020.